BoxOut Lab

Possession-level basketball notes

A small notebook on how possessions are won and lost: pace, offensive rebounding, shot profiles and lineup effects. Numbers first, opinions second.

Last update: weekly · sample: 1,240 games · methodology on the about page

Pace vs. efficiency

Faster does not mean better. Across the sample, teams above 78 possessions per 40 minutes gained only +0.6 points per 100 possessions.

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Second-chance points

Offensive rebounding rate explains 31% of the variance in second-chance points, the rest is shot selection after the board.

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Lineup net rating

Five-man units with at least 120 possessions together: net ratings are noisy below 300 possessions, the shrinkage estimator helps.

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League snapshot (synthetic sample)

TeamPaceORtgDRtgOREB%eFG%
Harbor Pines76.4112.8106.129.454.2
Ridgeway73.9110.3104.731.852.6
Lakeside Union79.1109.6110.226.553.9
North Quarry71.2107.4103.933.150.8
Saltmarsh77.8111.0109.527.955.1